- 24 August 2006 -

RF power semiconductor market to reach $1bn in 2011

By 2011, the total high power RF semiconductor market will be nearing $1bn, says a new study from ABI Research.

However, research director Lance Wilson is cautious: "The shape of the industry five years hence will depend on two critical shorter-term questions. At the manufacturing level, will the introduction of gallium nitride and silicon carbide as basic materials for the fabrication of RF power semiconductors mean the demise of Si LDMOS? And with mobile/3G infrastructure markets in decline, will they continue to drive the RF power semiconductor industry as they have in the past?"

To answer these and other questions, ABI Research undertook a market sizing study for all RF power semiconductors with power outputs above 5W, operating at frequencies of 3.8GHz and below. (A later study will target those operating at higher frequencies.) The study sizes the RF power semiconductor market into six usage-based segments and 22 sub-segments, providing a highly detailed, market-driven analysis.

The six major subdivisions are: wireless infrastructure, military, ISM (Industrial/Scientific/Medical), broadcast, commercial avionics, and non-cellular communications. Each of these is subdivided into between two and five specialty segments.

The need for such a study arose, according to Wilson, because: "This market has been overshadowed for many years by the wireless infrastructure sector. Now that new 3G/cellular wireless infrastructure deployments are declining, there is a paucity of information about how the rest of the industry is faring. This study puts wireless infrastructure — which is well understood — into the context of the rest of these markets."

The new study, "RF Power Semiconductor Devices: An In-Depth Market-Based Analysis" offers five-year detailed market forecasts for all major market segments and sub-segments, along with market share data for the major industry vendors, technologies and segments. It forms part of the RF Power Devices Research Service.

The company also recently addressed the market for EDGE-enabled handsets. These have never attracted the same levels of attention that "sexier" technologies such as WCDMA and HSDPA have enjoyed. In fact EDGE can best be described as the Cinderella of the cellular handset world, it said. However, recent forecasts from ABI Research indicate that the worldwide EDGE handset market will reach 148m shipments in 2006, representing 14% of the total mobile phone market.

Principal analyst Stuart Carlaw points out that, "EDGE is downplayed in the market because it cannot really provide a mobile broadband experience and is therefore not seen as being at the cutting edge of cellular handset evolution; it is viewed purely as an evolutionary step on the GSM ladder, and industry attention is very much focused on the newer technologies such as W-CDMA and HSDPA. That view is further compounded by the fact that operators do not actively report EDGE numbers in the public domain."

"However," adds research director Jake Saunders, "This lack of general market attention belies the real importance of the role EDGE plays in delivering mobile services today and will play in the effective delivery of content in the network of tomorrow."

Apart from the sheer volume of EDGE handsets, the ABI Research analysts believe that the industry as a whole should pay more attention to this market because EDGE is the only choice for some carriers today to support any type of near-acceptable mobile broadband experience, especially those with no 3G licenses or those waiting for 4G. Carlaw adds, "When the prospects for EDGE are viewed in the context of next generation networks, its true value comes to light. The technology still represents the only viable choice for supporting seamless service delivery on a very wide area basis. Neither WiMAX nor LTE nor HSUPA will be rolled out with enough geographic coverage to guarantee minimum service requirements on a wide scale."

RF Power Semiconductors:

www.abiresearch.com

EDGE handsets:

www.abiresearch.com