- 1 March 2005 -

PV silicon dominates

With increasing demand for energy and rising prices of fossil fuels on one hand and improved efficiencies on the other hand, photovoltaics offers assistance in meeting energy needs.

Photovoltaics: markets and technologies from research company Business Communications Co Inc notes total shipments of PV modules estimated at 973.1MW in 2004 and expect to rise at an AAGR of 23.4% to reach 2,783.1MW by 2009.

Silicon technology, some 90% of the PV market in 2003, continues to dominate through to 2009. Multicrystalline silicon represents the highest volume with shipments projected to grow at a 24.8% AAGR to reach 1,778MW by 2009. Single crystal shipments will grow at an average annual rate of 22.9% to reach 830.8MW by 2009.

Thin films have slipped to less than 10% of the market. Recent improvements in efficiency and the advent of flexible substrates will provide continued growth. Thin film PV accounted for 87.6MW by 2004 and will grow at an AAGR of 13.4% to reach 154.6MW by 2009.

New technologies, such as dye-sensitized solar cells and modules made by nanotechnology processes, will appear for commercial consumption by 2005. These are projected to account for 6.5MW by the end of 2005 and grow at an average annual rate of 30.1% to reach 19.7MW by 2009. Flexibility and lower cost will help propel their growth into the next decade.

The value of worldwide shipments of modules was estimated at $4.7bn in 2004. Future reductions in cost will dampen the growth of value at an AAGR of 11.7%, and the market account for $8.2bn by 2009.

Economies of scale and improved production methods will account for the lower rate of growth in the value of PV shipments over our forecast period. The value of module materials was estimated at $2,919.3m in 2004. Materials for cells and modules will grow at an average annual rate of 12% to reach $5,148.7 by 2009.